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Key Data Trends For Emmy Winners and Demos - Broadcasting & Cable

Key Data Trends For Emmy Winners and Demos

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Perhaps the biggest night on the television calendar, the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards telecast airs this evening (Monday, August 25th) at 8pm ET on NBC.

Today's report will look at the new "Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program" category as well as the P 18-34 viewer's role in it. Before this year, nominees in this category would be considered for "Outstanding Reality Program," but that category was separated into two this year – "Outstanding Structured Reality Program" and "Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program." One can loosely define the "Structured" category as shows with something a routine (a la Shark Tank / Mythbusters) whereas the nominees in the "Unstructured" category are programs that sort of just follow wacky people around and see what happens.

Five of the six nominees in the "Unstructured" category are all reality-Emmy first-timers, with the exception of Discovery's Deadliest Catch. They are: Bravo's Million Dollar Listing New York, Bravo's Flipping Out, Discovery's Alaska: The Last Frontier, Discovery's Deadliest Catch, BBC America's Wild Things With Dominic Monaghan and A&E's Wahlburgers. The new category seems tailor-made for A&E's Duck Dynasty, but its lead-out Wahlburgers got the nod, proof of how far the DD has fallen in recent seasons. Other omissions include E!'s Keeping Up With The Kardashians and Bravo's Real Housewives franchises.

Let's compare the respective series ratings from June 1 2013 - May 31st 2014 (period of eligibility), and find out if there's any correlation between ratings performance and an Emmy nod by looking at the results from the "Outstanding Reality Program" category in previous years.

Comparing "Unstructured Reality Program" Category Nominees (2013-2014) Live + 7

<p>Measurement Interval</p><p>Originator</p><p>Program</p><p>P 18-49 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-49 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 18-34 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-34 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 25-54 Rtg %</p><p>P 25-54 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 2+ Proj (000s)</p><p>Median Age (years)</p>

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

A&E NETWORK

WAHLBURGERS

1.70

2160

1.38

931

1.82

2185

3651

41

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

DEADLIEST CATCH

1.66

2105

1.05

709

2.10

2502

3963

46.6

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

ALASKA: THE LAST FRONTIER

0.79

1007

0.51

343

1.03

1228

2791

53

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

BRAVO

MILLION DOLLAR LISTING NY

0.64

805

0.48

323

0.75

898

1431

45.6

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

BRAVO

FLIPPING OUT

0.59

753

0.40

273

0.71

856

1432

47.9

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

BBC AMERICA

WILD THINGS S2

0.06

71

0.05

36

0.06

76

140

46.6

If the Emmy was based solely on ratings and impressions, the two front runners would be Wahlburgers and Deadliest Catch. Wahlburgers was a ratings revelation for A&E in its first season, establishing a solid audience. It's tough to argue that having Duck Dynasty as a lead-in played a role in superb ratings, but the program built its own identity by having a strong female skewed audience, something that wasn't traditionally the case with DD. The program defeats its fellow nominees when it comes to the advertiser-friendly P 18-49 and P 18-34 demos, while Deadliest Catch garners a slightly older demo, as well as the most total viewers out of all category nominees. One can argue that no network is doing reality quite like Discovery is right now, and Deadliest Catch set the standard for the network. It's also important to note that Deadliest Catch won the Emmy for "Outstanding Reality Program" in 2011, the last time a cable nominee won a reality program Emmy.

While the "Outstanding Reality Program" category no longer exists, we can try to find out if CBS' Undercover Boss, the series that won the category in 2012 and 2013, was a ratings champion too. Undercover Boss has been moved over to the new "Outstanding Structured Reality Program" category, meaning there will be an opening for a different series to grab an Emmy. Additionally, there are no broadcast TV nominees in this category.

"Outstanding Reality Program" Nominees 2012 & 2013 By The Numbers (Live + 7)

Did Undercover Boss won the category in 2012 & 2013, but did it win the ratings race both years?

2011-2012:

<p>Measurement Interval</p><p>Originator</p><p>Program</p><p>P 18-49 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-49 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 18-34 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-34 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 25-54 Rtg %</p><p>P 25-54 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 2+ Proj (000s)</p><p>Median Age</p>

06/01/2011 - 05/31/2012 (All)

CBS

UNDERCOVER BOSS

2.36

3020

1.47

993

3.22

3886

9796

56.3

06/01/2011 - 05/31/2012 (All)

ABC

SHARK TANK

1.94

2480

1.50

1012

2.47

2986

6367

51.0

06/01/2011 - 05/31/2012 (All)

NBC

WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE

1.20

1536

0.67

456

1.72

2076

5999

58.5

06/01/2011 - 05/31/2012 (All)

ABC

J. OLIVER'S FOOD REVOLUTN

1.01

1324

0.88

603

1.22

1519

2904

47.3

06/01/2011 - 05/31/2012 (All)

PBS

ANTIQUES ROADSHOW

0.83

1066

0.39

266

1.32

1597

6152

63.3

06/01/2011 - 05/31/2012 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

MYTHBUSTERS

0.59

757

0.62

419

0.60

724

1364

33.8

Undercover Boss was the top-rated nominee among P 18-49, P 25-54 and total viewers, scoring almost 10 million total per episode. Shark Tank was the top-rated nominee among the younger P 18-34 demo. Discovery's Mythbusters was the category's lone cable nominee, and finished last in ratings among P 18-49, 25-54 and total viewers. It was also the youngest-skewing program.

2012-2013

Half of the category's nominees were from cable and the other half were from broadcast:

<p>Measurement Interval</p><p>Originator</p><p>Program</p><p>P 18-49 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-49 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 18-34 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-34 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 25-54 Rtg %</p><p>P 25-54 Proj (000s)</p><p>P 2+ Proj (000s)</p><p>Median Age</p>

06/01/2012 - 05/31/2013 (All)

ABC

SHARK TANK

2.34

2963

1.77

1195

3.01

3578

7549

51.5

06/01/2012 - 05/31/2013 (All)

CBS

UNDERCOVER BOSS

1.89

2394

1.11

749

2.69

3190

8999

58.2

06/01/2012 - 05/31/2013 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

DEADLIEST CATCH

1.67

2120

1.16

783

2.03

2435

3613

44.7

06/01/2012 - 05/31/2013 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

MYTHBUSTERS

0.85

1076

0.81

546

0.87

1036

1855

35.3

06/01/2012 - 05/31/2013 (All)

PBS

ANTIQUES ROADSHOW

0.73

927

0.39

261

1.16

1382

5869

65.0

06/01/2012 - 05/31/2013 (All)

FOOD NETWORK

DINERS, DRIVE INS & DIVES

0.54

681

0.45

308

0.63

752

1383

46.6

The story is a bit different here. Shark Tank dominated the field in terms of the key demos. It beat Undercover Boss and the other nominees in terms of P 18-49, P 18-34 and P 25-54 viewers. Yet it still lost. Undercover Boss was second among P 18-49, barely edging Deadliest Catch in the key demo, and 3rd among P 18-34, finishing behind Shark Tank and Deadliest Catch. Did Undercover Boss win any of the demos? Yes, the one its home network CBS specializes in...total viewers P2+.

Emmy winner Undercover Boss was the second oldest-skewing program out of the nominees.

Top Reality Programs Among The P 18-34 Set in 2014 (Live + 7)

<p>Measurement Interval</p><p>Originator</p><p>Genre Summary</p><p>Program</p><p>P2+ Est. Median Age</p><p>P 18-34 Rtg %</p><p>P 18-34 Proj (000s)</p>

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

A&E NETWORK

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

DUCK DYNASTY

39.0

4.92

3325

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

TEEN MOM II SSN5

28.1

3.24

2191

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

LOVE & HIP HOP ATLANTA 2

30.4

2.70

1828

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

LOVE & HIP HOP ATLANTA 3

30.0

2.66

1802

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

LOVE AND HIP HOP 4

30.0

2.39

1615

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

E!

GENERAL VARIETY

KEEPING UP KARDASHIANS

31.8

2.29

1551

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

CATFISH: THE TV SHOW SSN2

26.7

2.23

1507

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

CATFISH: THE TV SHOW SSN3

26.0

2.23

1505

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

BRAVO

GENERAL DRAMA

REAL HOUSEWIVES ATLANTA

40.6

1.82

1229

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

REAL WORLD EX-PLOSION

25.8

1.79

1212

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

TEEN MOM III

27.5

1.79

1211

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

VOODOO SHARKS

34.8

1.68

1137

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

USA NETWORK

GENERAL VARIETY

WWE ENTERTAINMENT

41.0

1.57

1063

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

ALIEN SHARKS

35.0

1.57

1062

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

BLACK INK CREW 2

28.7

1.57

1058

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

T.I. AND TINY 4

28.9

1.56

1058

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

GREAT WHITE SERIAL KILLER

35.8

1.56

1057

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

RETURN OF JAWS

35.9

1.51

1024

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

T.I. AND TINY 3

30.5

1.50

1013

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

BASKETBALL WIVES LA 3

31.8

1.49

1007

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

I ESCAPED JAWS

33.9

1.45

981

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

BASKETBALL WIVES 5

32.4

1.43

966

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

SPAWN OF JAWS

35.4

1.41

954

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

A&E NETWORK

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

WAHLBURGERS

41.0

1.38

931

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

GOLD RUSH

46.6

1.36

917

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

SPIKE TV

GENERAL DRAMA

INK MASTER

33.0

1.35

911

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

SINGLE LADIES 3

33.3

1.34

909

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

A&E NETWORK

GENERAL DRAMA

MODERN DADS

38.3

1.34

908

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

SNOOKI & JWOWW SSN3

26.6

1.31

889

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

SHARKPOCALYPSE

36.1

1.29

875

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

16 AND PREGNANT SSN 5

27.9

1.28

864

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

REAL WORLD XXVIII

28.0

1.28

863

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

BRAVO

GENERAL DRAMA

REAL HSWIVES OF NJ

41.4

1.25

849

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

TLC

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

BREAKING AMISH: BRAVE NEW

42.8

1.18

802

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

VH1

POPULAR MUSIC

T.I. AND TINY: HOLIDAY

23.2

1.17

794

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

HISTORY

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

PAWN STARS

51.5

1.17

790

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

TLC

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

BA:BNW:SHUNNING TRUTH

43.9

1.16

784

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

R DYRDEK FANTASY FACTRY 6

24.5

1.15

776

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

RIDICULOUSNESS SSN3B

26.1

1.14

772

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

TLC

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

SISTER WIVES

43.0

1.13

764

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

TLC

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

HERE COMES HONEY BOO BOO

33.3

1.13

763

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

RIDICULOUSNESS SSN4

27.0

1.12

755

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

OXYGEN MEDIA

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

BAD GIRLS CLUB

24.3

1.12

755

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

FAST N LOUD

40.4

1.11

748

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

BRAVO

GENERAL DRAMA

REAL HOUSEWIVES BEV HILLS

42.8

1.10

747

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

SPIKE TV

GENERAL DRAMA

BAR RESCUE

37.0

1.09

739

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

E!

GENERAL VARIETY

TOTAL DIVAS

30.2

1.07

726

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

HISTORY

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

SWAMP PEOPLE

49.7

1.06

720

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

MTV: MUSIC TELEVISION

POPULAR MUSIC

BEING CATELYNN

27.9

1.06

720

06/01/2013 - 05/31/2014 (All)

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

GENERAL DOCUMENTARY

DEADLIEST CATCH

46.6

1.05

709

It appears that programs that perform well among the older demos and total viewers P2+ have a better shot at winning the "reality" Emmy than programs which see better numbers among younger demos. VH1's Love & Hip Hop Atlanta was one program thatwas dominant on its night among P 18-34, yet it wasn't even nominated. In fact, only two of the six programs nominated in the "unstructured" category are in the top 50 highest-rated among the demo.

The new cable-exclusive "Outstanding Unstructured Reality" category may buck the trend, but if we take into account recent history, Deadliest Catch has the best chance at winning the Emmy tonight.

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