Television's share of global ad spending will peak at 40.4%
in 2013, according to a new forecast by media agency ZenithOptimedia.
Since 1980, when it took in 31% of global ad dollars, TV's
share of spending has grown to 36% in 2000 and 39% in 2010. After hitting an
apex in 2013, ZenithOptimedia expects TV's share to drop to 40.3% in 2015.
ZenithOptimedia says the Internet is the fastest growing
advertising medium. It grew 15.1% in 2012 and is expected to grow by 14% from
2013 to 2015.
"Since it began in the mid-1990s, Internet advertising has
principally risen at the expense of print. Between 2002 and 2012 the Internet's
share of global advertising rose by 15 percentage points, while newspapers'
share fell 12 points and magazines' share fell by 5 points," the agency said.
"We predict Internet advertising will increase its share of the ad market from
18% in 2012 to 23.4% in 2015, while newspapers and magazines will continue to
shrink at an average of 1%-2% a year."
ZenithOptimedia also noted that some broadcasters are
starting to sell ad packages that include both online video and television
spots. Advertisers are now recognizing the value of social media for brand
building and purchase consideration purposes, the agency also noted.
Across all media, ZenithOptimedia says ad growth in the U.S.
was stronger than expected in 2012, thanks to increases spending in U.S.
network television and syndication. The agency pegs North American ad growth at
4.5%, compared to its earlier estimate of 4.1%. "Consumer confidence, retail
sales, job numbers and house construction are all trending encouragingly
upwards," the agency says.
ZenithOptimedia expects ad spending in North America to
increase 3.4% in 2013, 4% in 2014 and 5% in 2015.
expects global ad expenditure growth to strengthen over the next three years,
with spending gains increasing to 3.9% to $518 billion in 2013. ZenithOptimedia
said 2012 turned out better than it had previously expected, so the 2013
percentage gain is smaller while the dollar figure is bigger than in last
quarter's forecast. The agency expects spending to continue to increase,
growing 5% in 2014, and 5.6% in 2015.