TVB Forecasts Dour 2009

Television Bureau of Advertising sees improvement for 2010.

Total spot-TV revenue will drop 2%-5% in 2009, the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) forecasted Thursday, with national spot plummeting 7%-10% and local spot somewhere between down 1% and up 2%.

The TVB called for a 25%-35% rise in station Web-site revenue and a 25%-50% bump for station wireless.

"The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in spot," TVB president Chris Rohrs said. "Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."

The TVB, a local-broadcast trade association, predicted much better things for 2010: a 6%-10% spike in total spot fueled by a 12.5%-16.5% climb in national and a 1.5%-5.5% rise in local spot. The TVB also called for robust gains in station Web sites and wireless for 2010.

The TVB’s figures represent “a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms and independent TVB research.”