TVB Expects Up to 10% Rise in 2008 Spot TV Revenue

Television Bureau of Advertising Sees 14%-16% National Increase, 5%-6% Local Gain

The Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) is expecting total spot television revenues to surge 9%-10% in 2008.

At its annual Forecast Conference Thursday in New York, the TVB -- a trade association of local television broadcasters -- said it expects revenue growth to be driven by a 14%-16% increase in national spot and a 5%-6% rise in local spot revenue over 2007 levels.

The TVB sees network revenues rising 4%-6%, syndication rising 3%-4%, network cable rising 5%-7% and local cable rising 5%-7%.

The wide-open political race and the Olympic Games are catalysts for growth. But according to the association, other factors impacting the 2008 market include the effect of the credit crunch on the consumer economy, the reshaped automotive category and the growth of new media.

Station Web-site advertising revenue is expected to grow 40%-50% and station wireless 50%-70%.

The TVB also provided an outlook on the 2009 market, with total spot revenues sliding 2%-4% from 2008 levels. Local spot revenues are expected to rise 1%-3% while national spot drops 8%-10%. The trade group expects network to be in a range of a 1% decline to a 1% advance, syndication to be flat to 2% higher, network cable to rise 1%-3% and local cable by the same margin.

Station Web sites and wireless are expected to continue the growth trend in 2009, rising 35%-45% and 50%-75%, respectively.

The TVB’s estimates are culled from estimates by financial analysts, station representative firms and TVB research.