Here's another sign that the boom times for media won't be coming back too soon.
Advertising growth for broadcast TV from 2001 to 2005 is expected to be about half what it was for the previous five years, according to the just-released Communications Industry Forecast from Veronis Suhler & Associates, New York.
VS&A projects that the compound annual growth for broadcast-TV advertising from 2001 to 2005 will be 3.1%, about half the 6.3% the industry posted from 1995 to 2000.
Total broadcast-TV ad sales will climb 20%, to $51.7 billion by 2005, VSA predicts.
The growth of cable advertising will also decelerate, from an average 19.7% for the previous five years to a 11.6% from 2001 to 2005, when total cable-ad sales are expected to reach $23.8 billion.
A competing forecast, issued in June by PricewaterhouseCoopers, offers somewhat more optimistic numbers for both broadcast and cable.
PWC predicts that broadcast-network advertising will climb at an annual rate of 5.5% from 2001 to 2005, while TV-station advertising will climb 3.7%.
VS&A predicts broadcast-network growth of 4.2% and station growth of 2.4%.
PWC says that cable-network advertising will grow 17.8% per year to 2005 and that cable-system advertising will grow at a rate of 13.5%.