Poltrack predicts 2003 ad-revenue upsurge


The broadcast networks will be up 4 percent in ad revenue in 2003. At
least that's the forecast from David Poltrack, executive vice president,
research and planning for CBS.

The first quarter of the year will be the
weakest, Poltrack said, due to the comparison with this year's first quarter, which had
the Olympic Games.

It may be down 10 percent.

But the second and third quarters will be up in the 7 percent to 8 percent
range, and the fourth quarter should be the strongest, posting a 10 percent or
better gain.

Next year's strong fourth quarter will be driven by what Poltrack sees as
another very strong network upfront ad-sales market next spring.

This year, he said, the networks will post a 6 percent revenue gain (versus a
10 percent drop for 2001).

Poltrack made his forecast at the UBS Warburg LLC media conference in New York

At the same conference, Ralph Guild, chairman of
Interep National Radio Sales Inc., predicted that radio will post an increase of 6 percent to 8 percent
next year, about the same rate of growth that the industry will realize for