New-Media Ad Outlook Remains Buoyant

MAGNA Global Worldwide projects that online-video advertising will soar 45% in 2009.

Traditional media advertising is barely growing, but new media continues to sizzle, according to a Tuesday analysis from MAGNA Global Worldwide, a media-services unit of ad agency giant Interpublic Group.

In a U.S. forecast for 2009, MAGNA projected that online-video advertising will soar 45% to $805 million, making it “the fastest-growing emerging-media platform.” In the biggest new-media advertising category, MAGNA sees the search category climbing 24% in 2009 to $13.8 billion.

In smaller categories measured on a dollar basis, percentages gains are higher. Growth in mobile was forecast to grow 42.6% to $298 million, social media 37.4% to $1.47 billion, emerging out-of-home (such as digital outdoor billboard) 22.7% to $1.954 billion and advanced TV 13.7% to $183 million.

While advanced TV -- which includes the cable industry’s Canoe Ventures effort -- is relatively slow-growing, Magna believes it has high potential in later years.

In a related forecast released, MAGNA Global guru Robert J. Coen lowered his 2008 total U.S. advertising forecast to 2% growth, or $285.1 billion, from 3.7% in a previous forecast made in December. The MAGNA forecast gain for total U.S. ad spend in 2009 is 3.1%.

Morgan Stanley Research reacted, “Despite the reduction, the overall TV-advertising forecast was increased for fiscal-year 2008, reflecting ~200 bps [0.2%] of stronger cable- and TV-network advertising growth than had been previously forecasted. We continue to believe that national advertisers are reluctant to cut brand spending and believe that cable will be a prime beneficiary, also supported by continued incremental share shift of TV dollars from broadcasting to cable in this year’s upfront.”

Morgan Stanley’s forecast for total U.S. ad spend was 1.9%, lower than MAGNA, reflecting more pessimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy.