National television advertising sales are expected to fall 1% in 2020, according to a new forecast from media buyer Magna.
Magna, part of the Interpublic Group of Cos., said the 2020 drop comes including the cyclical spending associated with an election and Olympics year.
For 2019, Magna estimates national ad sales declined 3% to $2 billion.
“Pricing strength no longer offsets volume weakness to stabilize revenue,” the Magna report said. “The Technology and Entertainment verticals will increase their TV spend in 2020 to support product launches and the ‘streaming war,’ offsetting most of the cuts from other industries (e.g. Automotive).”
Local TV will get a boost from $3.5 billion in incremental political spending in 2020, driving ad sales to jump 13% to $21 billion. Non-political ad sales are eroding 4% a year, Magna said.
Overall, in the U.S., Magna is forecasting 6.6% ad growth for 2020, including cyclical events and 4.4% excluding the Olympics and elections. That follows stronger than expected gains of 5.1% to $224 billion in $224 billion including cyclical events and 7.2% growth excluding Olympics and elections.
Digital ad sales are expected to increase 10.9% in 2020. Digital growth is slowing after a 16.1% gain in 2019.
The global ad market is expected to grow 5.7% in 2020 (4.6% excluding cyclical events). Global growth was 5.2% to $595 billion in 2019, up a tick from Magna’s previous forecast. Global ad spending has increased for 10 straight years, according to the agency.
Global linear television advertising was down 4% in 2019, the worst performance since 2009. “Pricing increases can no longer offset the accelerated decline of linear audiences, especially in odd-numbers years without cyclical events/drivers,” the report said.