SNL Kagan predicts that MVPD retransmission consent payments to TV stations will reach $10.3 billion by 2021, up from a projected $6.3 billion in 2015. Kagan is upping its projection of $9.3 billion in retrans fees by 2020 to $9.8 billion.
That is based partly on "strong" advances in year-end 2014 renewals and "step-ups" in current contracts, according to the company. Broadcasters will also get a boost from OTT initiatives that further monetize the signal it said, and will act as a hedge against retrans impasses or cord-cutters.
By 2018, Kagan predicts that the average retrans fee will be $1.53, putting TV stations in the number five position in payments behind only five basic cable nets: ESPN ($8.80); TNT ($2.16), Fox News ($1.67), Fox Sports ($1.57) and Disney Channel ($1.56), as well as RSNs, which Kagan expects also to top that TV station average.
Kagan is also looking for reverse retrans (networks collecting a cut of retrans) from $1.65 billion in 2015 to $3.69 billion in 2021.