Global advertising spending will rise 4.5% in 2014 and another 5% to $580 billion in 2015, according to a new forecast from media agency holding company GroupM.
The 2015 level of ad spending would exceed the previous pre-financial crisis and recession peak of 2007-2008 adjusted for inflation.
In the U.S., GroupM sees spending rising in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015. TV spending is expected to rise 3% to $79.1 billion in 2014 and increase 4% to $81.9 billion in 2015.
“The U.S. market should experience moderate ad growth in 2015 consistent with nominal GDP. We expect 2015 overall ad volume to exceed the 2006 high water mark of $161.9B by 4% on a nominal basis,” said Rino Scanzoni, chief investment officer for North American at GroupM, a unit of WPP. “TV share should remain consistent. Digital share of ad revenue is expected to grow by 100 basis points driven by search and on-line video.”
Nearly all of the global ad growth will come from 18 markets, including the U.S., China ranks second to the U.S. in generating ad spending growth, rising 9.8%.
“Despite the slowdown in China's general economy from 2012, its consumer economy continues to expand,” says Adam Smith, futures director at GroupM and author of the report. “This, plus intensive digitization of advertising, keeps China ad investment rising at or near double-digits, with no large print legacy to correct.”