In its latest forecast, giant media agency GroupM sees TV spending edging up 0.5% to $79.4 billion in 2019.
GroupM says that in 2018, an Olympic and mid-term election year, TV spending rose 2% to $79.1 billion.
The agency expects that in 2019 for the first time digital spending will top TV. GroupM expect digital to draw $79.8 billion in 2019, up 9% from 2018.
Among other media, out of home is expected to post a small 2% gain to $4.4 billion. Magazines are expected to drop 6% to $19.1 billion, newspaper lose 1% to $9.7 billion and radio slips 1% to $6.8 billion.
In total U.S ad spending is expected to rise 2.2% to $199.2 billion, after a 4% increase in 2018.
“While good news regarding key macroeconomic indicators like lower unemployment have increased US consumer confidence, increases in energy prices, rising interest rate rises, and low unemployment have many concerned about increased inflation,” GroupM said in its forecast. “Marketers continue to study their investments in traditional media, and have increased their scrutiny of all phases of digital, with a continued emphasis on verification and value.”
Globally GroupM forecasts advertising growth for 2019 will be 3.6% to $563 billion in 2019 following a 4.3% increase in 2018. Both gains are slightly smaller than the agency’s previous forecasts of 3.9% and 4.5% respectively.
GroupM said that the auto industry was the primary reason for the downgraded ad forecast, pointing to layoffs and plant closing at General Motors.
The forecast for traditional TV globally calls for 1.1% growth in 2019. In 2019,GroupM sees TV growth at only 1.2%, compared to an earlier expectation of 2.2%. Worldwide, TV faces a shortage of younger viewers and increasing prices on a cost-per-thousand viewers basis that advertisers are starting to resist.
Investment in digital media are expected to grow 9.7% in 2019, a slowdown from 12.6% in 2018. Digital’s share of ad spending will hit 42% in 2019, up from 39% in 2018.