Universal McCann's Robert Coen, one of the more respected forecasters of worldwide ad spending, revised his 2002 projection downward Wednesday, saying
that the recovery is "coming along slower than we expected" since last December,
when he made his first detailed projection for this year.
His total U.S. ad-spending projection now stands at +2.1 percent (to $236.2
billion) for 2002 over 2001. In December, he predicted total growth of 2.4 percent
(to $239.3 billion).
One major negative is his outlook for cable TV, which he now believes will
show a decline of 3.5 percent in ad sales this year to $11.5 billion. Six months
ago, he thought cable would grow 5.5 percent to $12 billion.
He also shaved about $1 billion off his forecast for local newspapers, which
he now said will be up just 1 percent to $38 billion.
On the positive side, Coen doubled his growth projection for the four major
networks, now saying that they'll show combined growth of 7 percent to $15.3 billion.
National spot TV will spurt 7.5 percent this year to $9.9 billion, driven in
large measure by what Coen said could be $1 billion in political advertising
this year. Earlier, he had national spot pegged at +5.5 percent. Local TV will
also be up a little more than he anticipated earlier, growing 5 percent (instead
of the earlier projected 4 percent) to $12.9 billion.
Coen also projected a much healthier increase for radio, especially on the
national side, where he had earlier projected a 1 percent decline for this year.
Now, he believes national radio will be up 6 percent to $3.6 billion, while
local radio will be up 3.5 percent (versus the previously projected 2.5
percent) to $14.7 billion.