Spurred by an expected surge in digital spending, local advertising across the country is expected to hit $174 billion by 2021, according to the latest BIA/Kelsey forecast.
Mobile and social advertising, as well as spending on local online and mobile video, each should experience at least a 17% increase by 2021, according to the group’s mid-year update, released Wednesday morning.
The group lowered its 2017 forecast slightly to $147.9 billion, due largely to a weaker than expected economy in the first part of the year. Also this year, spending on mobile is expected to replace radio among advertisers’ top five mediums, the forecast said.
Direct mail, however, is still expected to get the bulk of 2017’s local advertising spend—$37.1 billion, or 25%. Local TV should get the second-highest take—$20.9 billion, or 14%—followed by online and interactive platforms ($18.6 billion, or 13%) and newspapers and mobile (both at $16 billion, or 11%). Radio is expected to earn $15.6 billion.
“We are on the precipice of different advertising channels taking lead positions in the local advertising marketplace,” said BIA/Kelsey’s chief economist Mark Fratrik. “Although national and local businesses still utilize a mix of digital and traditional advertising platforms, the opportunities afforded by mobile, social and video advertising are incredibly valuable due to their measurability, adoption by consumers and enhancements by technologies such as beacons and data attribution that blend extraordinarily well with today’s mobile consumer.”