Even as digital advertising rises, broadcast TV in 2017 is expected to draw roughly 13.3% of a rising local ad spend, according to a BIA/Kelsey forecast released Wednesday.
If that rings true, over-the-air TV will get the second-largest chunk of the $148.8 billion local advertisers are expected to spend next year, the report said. Perennial leader direct mail will draw nearly 25%, the forecast said.
The predicted $148.8 billion 2017 spend is a 2.4% rise over the $145.2 billion local advertisers are expected to spend this year.
Growth in digital ad spending is a major factor for the projected increase. BIA/Kelsey estimates local advertisers will spend 13.5% more on online and digital in 2017 than they are this year—$50.2 billion.
That compares with a decrease of 2.4% next year for traditional media—print and over-the-air—advertising revenues, going from $101.1 billion in 2016 to $98.6 billion in 2017.
“A range of factors will drive local ad revenues higher in 2017 and through the end of the next year,” said Mark Fratrik, senior VP and chief economist at BIA/Kelsey. “An improving U.S. economy, increased spending by national brands in local media channels, extraordinary growth in mobile and social advertising, and the continued expansion and selection of online/digital advertising platforms. In fact, we are predicting that online/digital local ad share will exceed the share of print media by 2018.”