Analyst: Trump Win Could Delay Ad Spending

National TV spending down excluding Olympic revenues in 3Q
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Ad spending will increase at a low-single-digit rate over the long term, the election results contributing to slowing growth in at least the fourth quarter, according to analyst Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research.

Wieser notes that “we expect a negative impact on advertising growth in the form of delays in spending decisions now that the unexpected combination of a Republican victory for the Presidency and control of Congress has occurred, with still-to-be defined policy choices that could impact the economy in difficult-to-predict ways during 2017.”

In the third quarter, national TV was down 1%, excluding incremental and non-cyclical revenue generated by the Olympics, Wieser said. That underlying rate is a deceleration from the first and second quarter.

Local TV was up 10% versus the third quarter of 2012—a smaller than expected gain as political was weak but traditional ad spending fared better.

Ad revenue for all U.S. media owners rose by about 4%, Wieser said, based on company earnings reports.

Digital was the fastest growing medium, led by Facebook, which was up 50% and Google, up 22%.

Print fell by double digits, but radio and outdoor were stable, he said.

(Photo via Pictures of Money's FlickrImage taken on Sept. 9, 2016 and used per Creative Commons 2.0 license. The photo was cropped to fit 3x4 aspect ratio.)

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