The drumbeat for double-digit price increases in this year's
TV upfront ad market continues.
In a new research report, analyst David Joyce of Miller
Tabak + Co. estimates that the broadcasters are looking
at an average of 11.3% price increases on a cost-per-thousand- viewers basis in
the upfront. In total, Joyce estimates the broadcast total at $10.272 billion,
up 14.7% from last year.
Joyce sees top-rated CBS raking in 12.5% price gains and
taking in $3 billion, up from $2.6 billion last year. That would be followed by
Fox, with prices up 11.5%, taking in $2.275 billion, up from $1.975 billion
last year. He sees ABC earning 11% price increases and taking in $2.75 billion,
up from $2.4 billion, with NBC bringing up the rear at 10% price increases and
$1.825 billion in sales, up from $1.6 billion. The CW is expected to register a
9% price increase, and take in $390 million in the upfront, up from $350
Spanish-language broadcasters should get increases of 9%,
selling about 65% of their primetime inventory. With ratings growing, Joyce
pegs the value of the Spanish-language upfront at $1.925 billion, up 11.6%.
Joyce expects cable network to sell a robust 62.5% of their
inventory in the upfront, with price increases ranging from 8% to 12%,
depending on ratings and genre. He pegs the cable upfront at $9 billion, up
11.5% for the full year and expects cable network ad revenue to be $23.5
billion, up 10.8%. That estimate could be conservative, he says, if scatter
pricing stays above upfront pricing.
Joyce also took a look at the kids market, estimating that
the upfront will be up 12.8% to $1.1 billion.