Nomura Analyst Raises Ad Growth Forecast


Nomura Securities analyst Michael Nathanson has raised his forecast for 2011 advertising growth.

Nathanson, in a new research note, says advertising will rise 3% in 2011, up from a previous forecast of 2.4%.

He also raised his growth estimate for national television to 3.4% from 2.8%. This reflects the strength in the national scatter market at broadcast and cable networks, as well as continued momentum in local advertising trends. In the new forecast, broadcast network ad revenue will grow 4%, up from 3.4%, and national cable network ad revenues will rise 8.9%, up from 8.3%.

Much of the strength in the ad market is coming from a spending resurgence by the automakers. Of the publicly held media conglomerates, the Walt Disney Co. gotthe largest share of its 2010 ad revenue from automakers at 12.4%. Next is Discovery Communications at 10.7%, according to Nomura.

 Spending is also strong with technology and telecom companies. Disney gets 22.9% of its adrevenue from those three categories-auto, tech and telecom-followed by News Corp. at 19.5% and Discovery at 17.8%