Moffett Ups Odds on Charter-TWC to 90%

Says Netflix support 'speaks volumes'

MoffettNathanson media analyst Craig Moffett has raised the odds on the Charter-Time Warner Cable deal getting done to 90%.

In a note to investors Thursday, Moffett said that even with the launch of the Stop Mega Cable Coalition last week, his takeaway was that most of its members were looking for conditions, not expecting to block the deal.

He conceded hurdles remained, including clearing a California PUC process—it held a public hearing on the deal this week—that had a tedious timeline, but he said for all that, he sees the stumbling blocks as getting smaller.

One of the big plusses, he says, is that Netflix is on board with this deal, contrasted with its vocal opposition to the Comcast play for TWC.

Netflix is high on Charter's settlement-free peering policy and extending that to TWC.

Given that OTT impact was what scuttled the Comcast deal, he says Netflix's support "speaks volumes." He said that Charter's OTT-friendly track record clearly works in its favor.