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And on the Seventh Week, They Tested: Broadcast Network Breakdown

11/16/2012 03:16:21 PM Eastern

Seven weeks into the new season, which networks and shows
are rising or falling, flailing or floating? Here's a look at how they all
stand.

ABC

ABC is down 13% in viewers and 12% in adults 18-49 so
far this season. Dancing With the Stars, its huge ratings driver, is
down double-digits this season with its All-Star edition going head-to-head
with NBC's megahit The Voice,
which was moved into fourth quarter.

Returning shows have also dipped in the ratings while new
shows The Neighbors and Last Resort have failed to really break
out. ABC's big hope for the season-Nashville-has
gotten positive buzz, but ratings are a bit lower than had been hoped for, and
new show 666 Park Avenue, which started strong, continues to scare away
viewers week-to-week.

ABC also announced that Private Practice will be
ending in first quarter. In addition, ABC's Sunday night lineup of Once Upon
a Time
and Revenge (which leads into 666 Park Avenue)
are still attracting adults 18-49, but last week all hit season lows in the
ratings.

CBS

CBS is having a rough season, despite its No. 1 status in
households and total viewers. While still at the top of the heap, the Eye Network
is down 7% in total viewers and a significant 21% in adults 18-49 versus last
season.

The network has been hurt by a number of factors. Its powerful
Monday and Tuesday lineups were eaten into by the addition of NBC's The
Voice
, plus it had to contend with comparisons to last season's huge
numbers for the entrance of Ashton Kutcher replacing Charlie Sheen on Two
and a Half Men
. The premiere of Men last season drew over 27 million
viewers and pumped ratings for all the shows on the night. This season, the
declining show was moved to Thursdays and CBS replaced it with the weak comedy Partners
that has hurt its whole night.

In addition, returning show Hawaii Five-0 has
been washed up this season against NBC's new hit Revolution, while
new Friday night drama Made in Jersey was the first cancellation of the
season.

Still, two new dramas, Elementary and Vegas, are doing well and have garnered
early full-season renewals while The Big Bang Theory, NCIS and Person
of Interest
remain strong.

Fox

This is one of the worst starts Fox has had in many seasons,
with ratings down between 17%-29% depending on the demo. Ratings for The X Factor have
fallen from last season despite the addition of Britney Spears and Demi
Lovato, while MLB postseason primetime ratings declined by
double-digits this season.

Fox has seen losses to almost all its returning shows, while
new comedies Ben and Kate and The Mindy Project (both with full-season
orders) are only doing low-to-moderate ratings (but do get a lot of DVR
recorded viewing). Fox's Sunday night of animation is also leaking viewers and
new Monday drama The Mob Doctor is just waiting for the ax to swing.

In addition, Fox has pushed back the premiere of the second
season of Touch because it feels it needs more time to promote it. But
there's good news for the network on the horizon: American Idol is
coming back in first-quarter with a supposed war between new judges
Mariah Carey and Nicki Minaj. That might be just the revival the network needs!

NBC

NBC has moved from fourth to first in adults 18-49 thanks to
the addition of ratings powerhouse The Voice (3 hours a week), a strong
football season and the breakout of its new adventure drama Revolution.

This is the first time in 10 years that NBC has found
itself in this position. The Voice has helped NBC's schedule as a whole
by supplying a healthy lead-in to new shows Go On and The New Normal
on Tuesdays, and to Revolution on Mondays.

Despite its envious position as the only network with gains
(up 11% in viewers and 16% in adults 18-49), and sitting as the No. 1 network
in the demo, NBC still has big holes in its schedule. Its Thursday night lineup
is tanking and Wednesday's new comedies Animal Practice (already
cancelled) and Guys With Kids (should be cancelled but it's by Jimmy
Fallon and Lorne Michaels...well, you get it) have been ratings flops, dragging
down Law & Order: SVU to all-time low levels and giving new drama Chicago
Fire
no ratings embers to grow from. The Peacock still gave Chicago Fire a
full-season renewal, however.

When first quarter rolls around and NBC doesn't have Sunday
Night Football
 and The Voice takes a break, the
network may see a reversal of fortunes.

The CW

While the network started its new season late (and
thus ratings are way down when compared on a same-week basis
to last season's earlier start), it seems that The CW has a possible hit
on its hands with new drama Arrow, which already received a full-season
order.

Beauty and the Beast is also doing okay for the
network and there is high anticipation for The Carrie Diaries, which will be joining the
schedule in midseason.

The bad news is that new drama Emily Owens, M.D. has
been pretty much DOA (despite getting an additional script order) while most
returning shows are down.

Still, Arrow has breathed some life into the network
and perhaps the show will "point it"
in the right direction.

Now...about that "surge" in TV viewing that the
broadcast networks are touting

The broadcast networks seem hell-bent on brushing off this
season's poor primetime performance (based on live-plus-same-day ratings) by
saying there's been a surge in DVR viewing. But a look at the Nielsen data
shows it's not really a "surge." In fact, it's in line with DVR penetration
for primetime versus a year ago-45% this September vs. 42% last September. And
while some shows are getting a much bigger DVR lift than others this season,
and the networks are understandably touting that, this happens every season.

Comparing cumulative ratings of the Big Four broadcast
networks through October 23 of this season to the matching period last season
shows that in 2011, live-plus-three-day ratings in the adults 18-49 demo were
17% higher than live-plus-same-day ratings. For 2012, live-plus-three-day ratings
in the adults 18-49 demo are 20% higher than live-plus-same-day ratings.

The live-plus-seven-day 18-49 ratings in 2011 were 22%
higher than live-plus-same-day ratings in the demo, while in 2012, the live-plus-seven-day
ratings are 26% higher than live-plus-same-day ratings. Not exactly a surge.

Is multiple-screen viewing impacting primetime?

While it's true that people are now using multiple screens
to access their TV content, primetime HUT (homes using television) levels among
households and adults 25-54 are pretty stable versus last season. The HUT level
for fourth-quarter 2011 was 62.4 and for fourth-quarter 2012 is 62.7, an
increase of 0.48%. The PUT (people using television) level within the 25-54
demo was 41.4 in fourth-quarter 2011 and is 41.0 in fourth-quarter 2012, a
decrease of just 0.97%.

The usage levels have declined a bit more in the adults
18-49 and adults 18-34 demos. Among adults 18-49, the PUT level in fourth-quarter
2011 was 37.1 and in fourth-quarter 2012 is 35.9, a decrease of 3.2%. Among
adults 18-34, the PUT level in fourth-quarter 2011 was 32.5 compared to 30.7 in
fourth-quarter 2012, a decline of 5.5%.

September
October