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Social Buzz Predicts Series Renewals

Data from Canvs gives Magna emotional responses from viewers

Media agency Magna Global, working with emotional response data from research company Canvs, has created a model that predicts which new TV series are likely to be renewed.

On the list for a second season were Fox’s Scream Queens, ABC’s Quantico and The Muppets, CBS’ Supergirl, and NBC’s Blindspot (NBC has already announced that it is picking up season 2 of Blindspot).

Canvs uses Nielsen social data to measure the emotions registered in social media activity about shows. Magna used a regression model built on program characteristics including the night of the week and the gender of the main character during the 2014-15 season. Its accuracy level in predicting renewal or cancellation was 58%.

Integrating Canvs’ Twitter data that included categories such as “loved,” “exciting,” “funny” or “crazy,” the accuracy level rose to 83%, the company said.