Analyst Sees Broadcast Upfront Up 4% to $9.49B

Look out media buyers, another analyst is looking for a strong upfront.

In a new report, Anthony DiClemente of Barclays expects upfront revenue for the Big 4 broadcasters to increase 4% to a record $9.49 billion from last year, with cable doing better, and with the value of ad commitments up 6% to $9.88 billion.

“We think it could be another strong upfront, although it may not be as robust as last year,” DiClemente says. Auto advertising, which represents about 20% of TV advertising is driving the strong market, he says.

For pricing, DiClemente sees CBS achieving CEO Les Moonves’ goal of a 10% increase, while Fox gets 9% gains in CPMs (cost per thousand viewers); ABC earns 8% and NBC sees a 7% gain.

Even with a price increase, he expects Fox’s upfront dollar volume to be down 2.1% to $2.15 billion, partly because American Idol’s ratings have been soft. For the other networks, he projects CBS to ring up $2.92 billion, ABC to garner $2.65 billion and NBC to hit $1.78 billion.

Cable will get a 51% share of upfront spending, DiClemente projects.