Magna forecast: Online video fastest growing major media in 2009

Things really must be getting better–even the media agencies are saying so.

Interpublic unit Magna updated its 2010 ad outlook October 13 saying it expects total media ad revenue to decline by 1.3% rather than its much worse earlier 2.1% figure. Media companies are forecast to net $159 billion of ad revenue next year, according to the report penned by Brian Wieser, global director of forecasting.

Wieser predicts that paid search and online video will lead the media industry in terms of fastest growing major media categories. Digital online will grow 5.3% over the next five years. It is projected to hit $5.57 billion in 2009. Magna says that national TV is expected to grow 1.3% in 2010, to hit $32.7 billion, an uptick from this year, which is expected to land on $32.3 billion (that’s still down from $34.5 billion in 2008).

In local TV, Wieser expects just a 0.9% decline in 2010 to $14.4 billion and a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% between 2009 and 2014. Fourth quarter U.S. media suppliers will see a 9% decline in ad revenue, he says.

“As we previously forecast, the first half of 2009 marked the bottom of the ad-supported media economy’s decline,” read the report. Wieser bases his slightly better forecast on a number of factors, one of which is an increase in industrial production, an indicator closely tied to advertising spending.