Eyeball derby 2000

In cable, USA wins by losing; broadcast holds firm

By Deborah D. McAdams -- Broadcasting & Cable, 1/1/2001

More people watched more TV more of the time last year, but fewer migrated from broadcast networks into cable. Television analysts say basic cable prime time viewership will show a 4% ratings increase over 1999, while viewership for the six major broadcast networks will be up about 1%.

In past years, the collective big broadcast networks showed decreasing Nielsen numbers, but they fought back last year with Regis Philbin at the helm of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? and the summer debut of Survivor, thus cutting into cable's overall growth.

Out of 41 basic cable networks measured by Nielsen Media Research, 28 were flat or down compared to last year, and only three of the top-10 rated cable networks posted prime time gains for 2000, according to preliminary numbers (year-to-Dec. 17). Cartoon, Lifetime and Discovery grew, while USA, TBS, Nickelodeon, TNT and ESPN fell and A & E and MTV remained flat.

Even so, USA Network will retain the No. 1 spot in basic cable prime with a 2.1, down 13% from a 2.4 last year in the same 51-week period. The drop was no surprise, since USA lost the huge WWF ratings in September when the wrestling franchise was moved onto the Viacom nets. USA will court more women and adults 25-54 now that the boy-heavy WWF is gone, said Ray Giacopelli, vice president of research for USA Networks. Women 25-54 are up 25% for USA's original movies, and adults 25-54 are up 12% in the weeknight block of Walker, Texas Ranger; JAG; and Nash Bridges. TBS was No. 2 in prime, with a 1.9, down 5% from last year; and its sister net, TNT, fell 15% from a 2.0 to a 1.7 in prime. The decline of the two Turner titans along with USA had researchers predicting the demise of the general-entertainment cable network.

"People say it's all over for the big networks, but that's not necessarily true," said Bob Sieber, vice president of audience development at Turner. "The competitive structure is more complex, but that just means the big networks have to work harder at branding themselves. General entertainment networks have a great record over time."

Sieber said the Turner problems aren't related to the decline of general-entertainment networks, but specific phenomena. News-free TBS suffered most in the fourth quarter as people followed the election crises. At TNT, the story is soft numbers for wrestling and basketball. Ratings for World Championship Wrestling have withered in the last two years, and NBA games on cable didn't get the big numbers they did in 1998. Expect changes at TNT in 2001, Sieber said. Sources inside Turner say the WCW will soon be yanked from TNT, where it doesn't always fit in with shows like David Copperfield. Cartoon Network took up the slack for its other Turner siblings. Cartoon landed at No. 3 for the 51-week period with a 1.8, up 13% from the No. 5 slot last year. With kid viewership (2-11) up 5% last year, Nickelodeon handily won total day with a 1.5, but the network goes to sitcoms in prime, while Cartoon keeps doing cartoons.

Nick-at-Nite, Nick's prime time identity, was down 11%, from a 1.9 to a 1.7 in a three-way tie for No. 4 with TNT and Lifetime.

Lifetime showed a 6% improvement over last year on the strength of Any Day Now and Strong Medicine, the two highest-rated original dramas in basic cable. Lifetime's movies were also up 17% from last year, said Tim Brooks, Lifetime senior vice president of research.

ESPN and A & E tied for No. 7, both with a 1.4-flat for A & E and down 16% for ESPN. Artie Bulgren, vice president of research for ESPN, said the proliferation of unmetered national and regional sports nets is cutting into ESPN's overall audience, so like a lot of the larger cable nets, it will focus more on a target demo: men 18-34. Bulgren said men 18-34 are up 6% in prime over last year, and 8% in total day.

"In light of everything that's being offered in TV today for young men, sports is the only thing out there," Bulgren said. He added that the final week of the year could actually bump ESPN up for its 2000 total, because of back-to-back college bowl game coverage.

Discovery at No. 9 was up 9% with 1.2 on the power of Walking with Dinosaurs and Raising the Mammoth, two of the highest-rated non-sports related shows for the year.

Prime time was also picked up by The Prosecutors, a new Discovery series launched in the fourth quarter that has improved the Monday, 10 p.m. time slot by 20%, said Steve McGowan, senior vice president of research. "That might be another reason Monday Night Football is down," he joked.

Rounding out the top 10, MTV posted a 0.9, same as last year. The Learning Channel, American Movie Classics, History Channel and Sci Fi also posted 0.9s in prime for the period, a 13% climb for History and Sci Fi.

In terms of growth, Court TV was once again the big winner, with a 50% leap.