Media Buyers Handicap Fall

Four top agencies pick the season's hits, misses and maybes

By Allison Romano -- Broadcasting & Cable, 8/30/2004

Sidebars:
Making the grade

It's judgment day. Analysts at big media agencies have scrutinized the latest reality shows, comedies and dramas to help clients brace for inevitable cancellations and time-slot shuffling. After all, advertisers lavished $9.3 billion on the broadcast network upfront, and they're about discover if their investment paid off. The six broadcast networks are launching 31 new fall shows, with NBC up first this week, looking for a post-Olympics glow.

So B&C sifted through reports from four top media-buying shops—Carat North America, Horizon Media, Initiative Media and Magna Global—that tried to handicap the new season. There is plenty at stake.

According to Ad Age, Carat billed $4.72 billion, Initiative $5.08 billion in 2003; figures for Horizon and Magna Global were not separated from their corporate parents.

This fall, analysts predict only a handful of sure bets, such as CBS'CSI: NY and NBC's Friends spinoff Joey. Some new entries, like ABC's dark survival drama Lost and CBS' baseball-centric , get good reviews but could fall victim to tough time slots. Others are more problematic. Jason Alexander's latest stab on CBS, Listen Up, seems unlikely to break the Seinfeld curse, while siren Heather Locklear may not be enough to make NBC's airport drama LAX fly.

The fresh shows getting buzz include ABC's Desperate Housewives, an HBO-style dark comedy about suburban homemakers, and UPN's drama Kevin Hill, starring hunky Taye Diggs. Hill should score with young women, particularly thanks to lead-in America's Next Top Model. And The WB could uncover its newest teen hit with Jack & Bobby. (No, it's not about the Kennedys.)

Still, innovative ideas don't always grab viewers right away—just look at Fox's quirky comedy Arrested Development, which has narrowly survived for a second season despite an Emmy nod and a cult following.

Of course, network suits and advertisers budget for some dogs. They need look no further than last season's mortality rate. Of 45 new scripted shows, only 12 survived. Remember Skin and Brothers of Poland, New Hampshire? Enough said. —with reporting by Anne Becker

Making the grade

Carat North America

Hits: Desperate Housewives; ABC's Boston Legal; Kevin Hill; Jack & Bobby; Joey

Misses: NBC's Father of the Pride is "must-flee TV"; ABC's Life as We Know It; The WB's Commando Nanny

Maybes: Apprentice clones The Benefactor on ABC and The Billionaire on Fox.

Watch for: NBC's eight-hour limited series Revelations coming in fourth quarter, and surging UPN. The network is changing every night but Thursday. If the schedule clicks, UPN could over-take The WB as the fifth-place broadcast network.

2003-04 Record: Dead wrong picking Coupling as a hit, or that Tarzan and UPN's All of Us would score. Right on CBS' sophomores Cold Case; Two and a Half Men; and Navy NCIS.

Horizon Media

Hits: Joey; CSI: NY; Kevin Hill

Misses: ABC's Life as We Know It; Dr. Vegas; UPN's Veronica Mars

Maybes: ABC's Rodney; Jack & Bobby

Watch For: A Wednesday war at 10 p.m. between CSI: NY and Law & Order. ABC will try to counter-program with Wife Swap.

2003-04 Record: Wrongly picked Lyon's Den; The Handler and ABC's Karen Sisco to survive; correctly tagged Tarzan to tank.

Initiative Media

Hits: CSI: NY; Kevin Hill; Rodney; Desperate Housewives

Misses: Father of the Pride; Veronica Mars; and ABC's Savages

Maybes: Clubhouse "might make a better movie"; Commando Nanny; ABC's Lost

Watch For: CBS' medical drama Dr. Vegas and NBC's Medical Investigations go head-to-head Friday nights. Rob Lowe is top doc in Vegas, and former Sopranos star Pantoliano leads MI, but both headlined flops last season (Lowe in NBC's Lyon's Den and Pantoliano The Handler on CBS). One will survive, but it's too soon to issue the death certificate.

2003-04 Record: Picked Joan of Arcadia would rise up, and Las Vegas would play on. Overestimated Pantoliano's ability to deliver in The Handler.

Magna Global USA

Hits: CSI: NY; Kevin Hill; Desperate Housewives; Savages

Misses: NBC's Hawaii is a "cookie cutter" cop show; Father of the Pride; Rodney; Veronica Mars because "not every UPN show will work"

Maybes: Lost is "pretty intense for 8 p.m."; Joey; The WB's The Mountain

Watch For: Fox got Trading Spouses on first, but Wife Swap is a good show with "potential to be a new reality franchise." ABC might have doomed it with a treacherous time slot, Wednesdays at 10 p.m. Magna's advice: Wise up ABC and move it to 9 p.m.

2003-04 Record: NBC's Las Vegas; The O.C. and Navy NCIS were good calls. Missed badly on Coupling, The Handler and Skin.