To Live and Die in Prime Time

As the networks scramble to look solid for the May upfront, programming chiefs are playing hard ball, deciding what stays, what goes, and what's the next big thing. With millions on the line and careers in the balance, failure is not an option. Here's BROADCASTING & CABLE's take on what's coming up and what's going, going, gone:

It hasn't been the best year in ABC's history. OK, it has been the worst year. But the good news for the network is that it's not starting from scratch, like it did when ABC Television Entertainment Chairman Lloyd Braun and ABC Entertainment President Susan Lyne started rebuilding two years ago.

Let's be positive: ABC managed to reinstate TGIF (Thank God It's Funny, as Lyne dubs it), and ABC insiders say all its sitcoms should return next season, perhaps except Married to the Kellys. Executives are moving It's All Relative away from Fox's American Idol juggernaut, so, later this season, some sitcoms can still show new episodes and capture an audience.

While sitcoms have worked for ABC, dramas have not. Threat Matrix, Line of Fire, and 10-8 are unlikely to return. Karen Sisco is already history.

On March 10, Stephen King's Kingdom Hospital turned in a solid performance: a 3.7 rating/10 share in adults 18-49 for second place behind NBC's Law & Order. More than 8.5 million viewers tuned in, fewer than Law & Order's 13 million but still a strong showing for ABC on Wednesday at 10 p.m. The D.A. is set to begin a four-episode mini-season, on Friday March 19 at 10 p.m.

The only show ABC has renewed is NYPD Blue, which is entering the final year of its storied run. The Practice is departing in its present incarnation to return with a new name and some of its characters set in a high-powered, high-priced civil-law firm. Alias will be back for season four.

Life is good for television's self-proclaimed most-watched network. So good that it's bringing back four of its freshmen shows: Navy NCIS, Cold Case, Joan of Arcadia, and Two and a Half Men.

With the strongest schedule, CBS has the luxury of eliminating shows that aren't quite hacking it, including Hack. The futures of The District, The Guardian, and Star Search are in doubt. The Handler won't return, and Brotherhood of Poland N.H. is long gone.

Over the past two years, CBS managed to put huge dents in NBC's once unassailable Thursday night. Now it has only a few time periods where it needs to gain ground. Specifically, Wednesdays and Fridays at 10 p.m. could use a hit. Can you spell CSI?

"It will be interesting to see where the next CSI goes," says Bill Carroll, vice president, programming, Katz Television Group Programming. "Do you want to split the audience with Law & Order on Wednesday night? The affiliates would say, 'Yes, absolutely.' They aren't happy they don't have a news lead-in now."

CBS could also put CSI: New York on Friday. After all, the original CSI got its start there, and a new spinoff could make CBS dominant on Fridays, paired with Joan of Arcadia and JAG.

Where CSI: NYC won't go is Saturday night. "That's what Jeff Zucker is hoping I'll do," CBS Chairman and CEO Leslie Moonves joked during the network's sweeps conference call last month.

Once again, reality shows have come to Fox's rescue, with American Idol the biggest show on television for the third season in a row. My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiancé was no Joe Millionaire, but, with 20 million viewers tuning into the finale, Fox Entertainment President Gail Berman is willing to consider marrying off some other big fat faker, even though Joe Millionaire 2 was an utter disaster.

The network has seen its share of shows come and go, with Skin, Luis, and Wanda at Large all going by the boards and A Minute With Stan Hooper lasting about that long. Fox isn't confirming that Boston Public is off the air, but the sets are packed, and other shows have used the soundstage. Translation: Class has been canceled.

Those failures point to Fox's biggest problem night: Friday. It's trying to fix it now, premiering reality show Playing It Straight and Wonderfalls last week. Fox's Thursday night isn't in great shape either, but that's not news. And it's a problem that everyone but NBC, CBS, and UPN has to consider.

Arrested Development isn't the ratings success Fox wants, but network insiders say it's a safe bet to be back.

Truly in question are Tru Calling, which drew the unlucky Thursday-night card in last spring's scheduling lottery, and Oliver Beene, which the network is trying out again on Sunday nights. The network has a good handful of tried-and-true shows that will return: 24, That '70s Show, The Simpsons, and Malcolm in the Middle are staples. And even though American Idol gets all the attention, newcomer The O.C. is probably the most welcome addition to the Fox family, with a growing young-adult audience and a bright future in syndication.

NBC's problems aren't as big as everyone thinks they are—yet. With the tag team of Fear Factor and Las Vegas giving the network its strongest Monday night in years, and Mark Burnett's The Apprentice one of this season's few breakout hits, NBC has some breathing room.

Still, whether The Apprentice 2 will soar like Survivor: The Australian Outback or sink like The Next Joe Millionaireremains to be seen. On the line are millions of dollars of ad revenue.

"CBS will be the only place to go on Thursday night if NBC doesn't pull this off," predicts Laura Caraccioli-Davis, senior vice president and director of Starcom Entertainment. And that's just what CBS is hoping for.

NBC has two not-so-secret weapons in its arsenal. One is a fourth rendition of Law & Order (working title: Law & Order: Trial by Jury). Overkill? Only if no one watches, and so far, Dick Wolf has scored—repeatedly—with the Law & Order franchise. NBC is betting that Burnett's boxing reality show, The Contender, also will be a Nielsen knockout.

Not coming back next year are Ed and The Lyon's Den. Of questionable status are Miss Match; The Tracy Morgan Show; Whoopi; Good Morning, Miami; and Happy Family. Renewed for next season are American Dreams and Las Vegas. Problem areas? Tuesdays 8-9 p.m. and Wednesdays 8-9 p.m. (The West Wing looks mighty tired at 9, but it draws the right demos.)

"Even though West Wing is on its last legs, you have a sense of stability if you keep it and Law & Order on Wednesdays. Then you are just dealing with fixing that first hour," says Caraccioli-Davis.

Comedy in general is on the bubble at The WB, with All About the Andersons, Like Family, Run of the House, Steve Harvey's Big Time, and The Jamie Kennedy Experiment all facing the renewal question mark. Of The WB's comedies, Reba, Grounded for Life, and What I Like About You are guaranteed spots next year.

Drama-wise, everything on The WB's air is coming back next season, with the exception of Angel. Tarzan never got swinging, but One Tree Hill surprised the network by showing signs of life with scant promotion. Charmed and Gilmore Girls both were rewarded with early renewals, even though Gilmore had to face ABC's 8 Simple Rules last fall and Fox's American Idol from January onward.

Changes to look for next season are a move for Smallville, whose ratings have fallen dramatically since the network moved it from Tuesdays at 9 p.m. to Wednesdays at 8 p.m. If that happens, Wednesdays could be all new for The WB next year.

Even though The WB is down some 20%, one buyer says, "the advertising community has unconditional love for The WB."

Who'd a thunk that underfed, overdramatic girls could turn UPN, home of bone-crunching, male-skewing WWE wrestling, around? Seeing is believing. America's Next Top Model is propping up broadcast's littlest network. UPN has rewarded supermodel Tyra Banks with an order for two more cycles and a guaranteed slot on Tuesdays at 9 p.m. Buffy who?

Besides Banks, All of Us, from Will Smith and Jada Pinkett Smith, and Eve, starring the hip-hop artist of the same name, have held their own and will be back next fall. Saying bye-bye is The Parkers. Paramount, its producer, thinks the show is too expensive to make. Too bad for UPN. It has been part of a relatively solid Monday. Another show on the UPN ropes is Rock Me Baby, which is slated to return after Top Model completes its run. Action hour Jake 2.0 won't be back, and, even though The Mullets is currently airing, don't expect to see those crazy hairstyles next year.

Keep your eye on Enterprise, part of the Star Trek franchise that helped build UPN. If the network's development slate looks good, it will give the network a chance to take the starship someplace it hasn't been for a while: off the air.