Political-ad windfall: $825M and counting

Tight gubernatorial races and a basket of elections that will decide control of Congress pumped roughly $825 million into TV stations by Oct. 15, 10% more than Wall Street estimated at the beginning of the campaign season.

"For a non-presidential election, this will reach record spending levels," said Mark Lund, vice president of sales at WNBC(TV) New York City, on pace to become the country's biggest beneficiary of political dollars (its newscast commercial breaks are wall-to-wall political spots). "With control of Congress in the balance, we're seeing national parties contributing more than usual."

Through Oct. 15, $54.7 million had been spent with New York City TV stations for the 2002 races, according to the Alliance for Better Campaigns, a watchdog group pushing for government-mandated free time for candidates. The alliance's numbers are based on data filed by stations but are not up to date and run at least 20% below actual spending, according to station sources. Station officials, however, refuse to give specific numbers.

Just behind WNBC in nationwide rankings are fellow Big Apple O&Os WABC-TV and WCBS-TV.

Candidates in a three-way race for governor are littering New York City airwaves despite Gov. George Pataki's 20-point lead over closest rival, Democrat H. Carl McCall. The big-party candidates are spending heavily to counter Independent Tom Golisano, a self-made billionaire who plans to spend roughly $20 million of his own money.

Also fueling New York City ad buys is the controversial race for New Jersey's Senate seat. There, Republican Douglas Forrester is trying to beat back Frank Lautenberg, a last-minute replacement for the disgraced Robert Torricelli.

"Top 25 markets are always big," said Victor Miller, media analyst for Bear Stearns, "and there are areas like Colorado, Minnesota and Arizona where we knew there would be competitive statewide campaigns." Finally, he said, "there are markets like East Texas and central Illinois where races have been tougher than expected." Miller calls that the "three buckets of cash" that are adding so much to the political grand total.

Some other hotly contested (and heavily advertised) races:

• In California, Republican Bill Simon's effort to unseat Gov. Gray Davis and a referendum over the San Fernando Valley's proposed secession from Los Angeles could ultimately pump more than $50 million into L.A. stations.
• In Texas, Democrat Tony Sanchez, another self-financed tycoon, is trying to oust Gov. Rick Perry, driving a $37 million bonanza for Dallas and Houston stations.
• The bitter Massachusetts gubernatorial race, pitting Democrat Shannon O'Brien against Mitt Romney, has given beleaguered Boston viewers the unfortunate distinction of living in the market with the highest number of ad buys: more than 31,000 spots sold through Oct. 15. Boston ranks third nationally in terms of campaign-ad spending.