Kagan: Retrans to Top $6 Billion by 2018

Says increased projection is due to stations getting more money for their signals

By John Eggerton -- Broadcasting & Cable, 11/5/2012 11:33:02 AM

SNL Kagan is projecting retransmission consent fees to surpass $6 billion by 2018 (the prediction is $6.05 billion), almost triple the projection of $2.36 billion for 2012, and on pace for a little south of $1 per sub.

In November 2011, Kagan projected $4.86 billion by 2017.

Kagan said that the increased projection was due to "the success of a wider range of TV station owners in securing sequentially higher retrans fees from multichannel operators over the last year of negotiated deals." Or put another way, more stations getting more money for their signals.

But according to Kagan, that is still only 10% of the estimated $43 billion by 2015 that cable operators are projected to pay cable programmers in affiliate fees.

At the estimate of just under a dollar per sub, Kagan predicts that by 2018, subs will be paying about $4.86 per month to cover the aggregate retrans fees in the market.

Kagan is predicting that multichannel providers will be paying $3.49 per month for the five primary broadcast networks by 2015, compared to $6.37 they are projected to have to pay for ESPN.