Research Group Downgrades Ad Revenue Forecast But Still Projects $2.4 Billion More in Overall 2012 Spending

By John Consoli -- Broadcasting & Cable, 8/17/2012 1:39:54 PM

Pivotal Research Group has slightly downgraded its U.S. advertising expectations for 2012, and is now forecasting total ad spending in the country to grow 1.4% to $173.8 billion, up from $171.4 billion. The previous forecast had ad spend rising by 2.3% this year.

The report prepared by Pivotal's senior research analyst Brian Wieser says, "After a review of the second-quarter earnings and commentary from media buyers in recent weeks, we are revising expectations for ad-supported media downward. What seemed an improving environment in first-quarter now appears to have been a 'false dawn.' The second quarter turned out to be in line with trends observed during late 2011, growing by only 1.3%. With the U.S. 'fiscal cliff' unlikely to be resolved soon, and with economists downgrading their expectations for the economy at the same time, we're skeptical that third-quarter will reverse course again."

Wieser adds that national TV "was weaker than our prior expectations" in the second quarter. "With negative growth in network TV and diminished growth in cable, the total sector grew by only 2% in second-quarter. While management teams identified various reasons to explain declines, the fact that budgets didn't show up elsewhere indicates to us that the markets generally softened more in line with the trend we observed coming out of last year's fourth quarter."

Meanwhile, local TV had a solid second quarter ad revenue-wise, growing by 9.8%, Wieser says, which is higher than Pivotal's projection of 7.8%.

"Political [advertising] is likely to have had a stronger impact than originally forecast, especially on local broadcasting," he says. For local TV, Wieser adds, "Overall, our prior forecasts now appear too conservative. We now expect local TV advertising to grow by 15% in 2012 vs. 2011."

Wieser is projecting total local political ad revenues for the year to reach $2.9 billion.

Here's a breakdown of Pivotal's revised ad dollar projections for 2012, including percentage of increase or decrease, for each media platform.

NATIONAL TV

National cable: $23.2 billion, up 5.8% or $1.26 billion
National broadcast, English language networks: $13.6 billion, a 1% increase or $141 million
National syndicated TV: $1.94 billion, up 2.5% or $48 million
National broadcast for the Spanish language networks: $1.25 billion, a 7.5% increase or $88 million
Total national TV ad revenue combining all the above: $40.1 billion, a 4% increase or $1.6 billion more than 2011

TOTAL MAGAZINES

$13 billion, a decrease of 5.1% or $760 million

NATIONAL DIGITAL

National digital display: $5.37 billion, a decrease of 9.2% or $548 million
Online video advertising: $2.25 billion, an increase of 24.8% or $448 million
Mobile search: $1.28 billion, an increase of 69.6% or $529 million
Total national digital TV ad revenue combining all the above: $8.9 billion, an increase of 5.1% or $430 million

NETWORK AND SATELLITE RADIO

$1.26 billion, an increase of 4.7% or $57 million

NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS

$753.2 million, a decrease of 11.3% or $96 million

NATIONAL CINEMA

$673.4 million, an increase of 4.5% or $29 million

TOTAL NATIONAL ADVERTISING

$64.86 billion, an increase of 2% or $1.36 billion

LOCAL TELEVISION

Local broadcast TV stations: $15.7 billion, an increase of 3.1% or $467 million
Local cable television: $4 billion, an increase of 3.1% or $121 million
Total local TV combining the two above: $19.7 billion, up 3.1% or $588 million

LOCAL NEWSPAPERS

$18.2 billion, a decrease of 8.1% or $1.6 billion

LOCAL RADIO

$14 billion, a decrease of 0.1% or $17 million

OUTDOOR

$5.9 billion, an increase of 3.3% or $192 million

LOCAL DIGITAL

$4.5 billion, an increase of 4.8% or $207 million

TOTAL LOCAL ADVERTISING

$62.3 billion, a decrease of 1% or $630 million

TOTAL DIRECT MEDIA ADVERTISING

$46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% or $1.7 billion

OVERALL TOTAL U.S. ADVERTISING FOR 2012

$173.8 billion, an increase of 1.4% or $2.4 billion