Broadcast Nets Ponder Shift Towards Cable Programming Model – As Should Advertisers

By John Consoli -- Broadcasting & Cable, 2/15/2012 2:44:33 PM

Turner Broadcasting is a cable network owner that wants to play in the broadcast network arena, and little by little, it is getting there in terms of ratings for its original drama series lineup and with the advertising dollars those shows take in. It also has a programming development model more conducive to producing profits, something the broadcast networks continue to struggle with.

TNT's dramas The Closer and Rizzoli & Isles draw viewer numbers that would make them primetime broadcast successes, while others such as Falling Skies, Leverage, Franklin & Bash and Memphis Beat, to name a few, draw viewer numbers that put them at the top of cable viewership during their seasonal runs.

Ditto for original scripted dramas like Burn Notice, Royal Pains and Psych on USA, and Sons of Anarchy and Justified on FX. Even though the viewer numbers might be lower than the most-watched broadcast network series (many of the top cable series draw between 3.5 and 7 million viewers in live telecasts), the cable original programming model overall is more profitable, and the broadcast networks are noticing. Now they are even publicly saying that they might start emulating cable in that regard.

In preparing for a TV season, the Big Four broadcast networks buy about 50 spec scripts each and develop a portion of those into pilots; some make it to the schedule and many do not. And while initial orders for fall shows are 13 episodes, if a show succeeds, it gets that back order of 9 more. With ratings so fragmented, more new shows with marginal ratings are getting those back nine orders.

But broadcasters may be starting to realize that developing more is not necessarily better. They are beginning to schedule some of their series, both new and returning, so that they run consecutively in first run with no repeat episodes in between. And they are ordering, at least for midseason, fewer episodes than the traditional 13.

That's much closer to the norm for cable networks, which basically order 12 episodes of scripted dramas instead of the 22 for a season. Cable networks also do not buy 50 spec scripts and develop dozens of pilots. The usually have a much more austere development process, selecting a handful of series to shoot pilots for. Those are the ones that get on the air. And they almost always stay on for the time it takes to gather enough episodes for syndication.

The point could be debated, but it is possible that if the broadcast networks were under the gun to develop less, shoot fewer pilots and keep what they do select on the air, it might result in more successes in the way cable networks have experienced. It is a lot to ask of viewers to sample 23 new shows in the fall across the broadcast networks, pretty much all at the same time.

Cable networks each premiere a couple of new shows per season, offering a much easier load for audiences to sample. And the quality of each episode might be better as a result.

Advertisers certainly wouldn't complain if the broadcast networks didn't flood the fall schedules with new programming that winds up being canceled or declared a failure before audiences even get to really watch them-and then having to move their ad units to different shows.

During the Television Critics Association winter press tour last month, NBC entertainment president Bob Greenblatt told The New York Times, "The beauty of cable is you make three pilots, you pick up three pilots and you declare them all hits, and they run for five years."

Fox is running its midseason drama series Touch, starring Kiefer Sutherland, and The Finder, straight through with no repeats. Fox entertainment president Kevin Reilly told the Times, "I do think we're at a place where the 13-episode pattern has appeal. There are a lot of shows that would be better off creatively doing fewer than 22 episodes and the viewers would probably enjoy them more."

On ABC, entertainment president Paul Lee has chosen to run all eight episodes of midseason sci-fi series The River in pattern.

CBS is the one exception among the Big Four broadcasters with seemingly no desire to alter the traditional broadcast programming pattern. CBS entertainment president Nina Tassler says her network likes the current model and has no plans to alter it.

She told the Times, "We're doing something right, and not just good enough to get by. We're doing really well."

But unlike the other broadcast networks, almost all of CBS' scripted dramas are procedural crime dramas and they all repeat extraordinarily well.

That's not the case for many serialized dramas. On Jan. 26, ABC's Grey's Anatomy drew only 3.9 million viewers in repeat and recorded a 1.3 18-49 rating on Thursday nights at 9. It was out-rated by Univision telenovela La Que No Podía Amar, which drew 4.2 million viewers and a 1.8 18-49 rating in the hour.

If there was ever a time when advertisers might have a say in what direction the broadcast networks go on this, it is now. The broadcast networks know the system is broke and for the first time they have publicly said that something closer to a cable system might be a direction they would consider going in. If the ad community and their media agencies agree, now is the time to speak up and weigh in.