Barclays Revises TV Ad Forecast Downward
TV station ad revenue projected to fall 15.5% in 2009
By Claire Atkinson -- Broadcasting & Cable, 12/17/2008 7:42:00 PM
Barclays Capital is doubling its prediction on advertising declines for 2009. The company now projects total U.S. advertising spend will fall by 10%, to $252.1 billion, rather than the 5.5% it had projected in October.
In the broadcast sector, Barclays’ revised ad revenue estimate is down 10% for 2009 and up 3% for 2010. The bank thinks TV stations’ local and national spot ad revenue will fall 15.5% next year. It was previously forecasting a drop of 8.9%.
Cable ad revenue fares much better, though a drop rather than a rise is projected. Cable network ad revenue will fall only 3% in 2009 and rise 5% in 2010. Barclays had suggested revenue growth of 1.8% for cable next year.
The company also revised U.S. Internet ad revenue growth downwards. The estimate for total U.S. Internet ad revenue dropped from $28.3 billion to $25.1 billion, though that’s still a 6.1% increase on last year. “For 2010 we believe online advertising growth will reaccelerate to 12% reaching $28.1 billion,” reads the report out today.
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