The Early Emmy Line
As ballots are sent, B&C lays out the odds on the nominees
Compiled by Joel Brown -- Broadcasting & Cable, 7/31/2005 8:00:00 PM
We won't know the winners until Sept. 18 when CBS airs the Prime Time Emmy Awards, but everybody in Hollywood is guessing who'll be taking home the gold. Judging tapes for the awards that will be given out on the telecast (in other words, the big ones) will be sent starting Aug. 8. Here, B&C takes a stab at sizing up the competition in the top categories and handicapping the odds. Next week: The critics weigh in with their picks.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY
Some observers think the 15 nominations for Will & Grace is the funniest Will & Grace moment of the season. That fading sitcom matches ABC's Desperate Housewives for most nominations for a series this year. But the poisoned tarts and horny moms of Housewives could take this category in a walk. CBS' Everybody Loves Raymond might take a farewell win, of course. Another statue for last year's winner, Fox's Arrested Development, might be justified. And everybody loves NBC's Scrubs, but like a brother, if you know what we mean.
ODDS: Desperate Housewives is tops at 2-1 odds to win. Everybody Loves Raymond, 3-1; Arrested Development, 4-1; Will & Grace, 6-1; and Scrubs, 10-1
OUTSTANDING DRAMA
NBC warhorse The West Wing improved when it hit the campaign trail, but not enough to deserve a nomination over FX's Nip/Tuck or The Shield. HBO's Six Feet Under should have won this category when it was better in earlier years. Fox's 24 is pulse-pounding, but it's a parlor trick that doesn't hold up to close scrutiny. ABC's Lost took an old Hollywood-movie concept—marooned strangers thrown together—and turned it into something far weirder. But our vote would go to Deadwood, HBO's &@#$ fantastic frontier series. David Milch's writing was out-&$@#*-standing!
ODDS: Deadwood, 2-1; Lost, 3-1; Six Feet Under, 4-1; The West Wing,5 -1; 24, 6-1
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Tony Shalhoub won in 2003 for USA's Monk. Ray Romano won in 2002 for CBS' departing hit Everybody Loves Raymond. Eric McCormack won in 2001 for NBC's Will & Grace, but now that the gay angle doesn't seem so fresh, he doesn't seem so funny either. NBC's wacko Scrubs star Zack Braff is a funny fellow, and we'd be pleased if he won, but very surprised. Romano could get the sentimental vote, but our Ouija board points to Jason Bateman of Fox's Arrested Development.
ODDS: Romano, 3-2; Shalhoub, 2-1; Bateman, 4-1; Braff, 6-1; McCormack, 10-1
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Hank Azaria was marvelous in a breakthrough role on Showtime hit Huff. The network was also smart to send DVDs of the series to voters before it aired, but it won't be enough. Kiefer Sutherland once again made Fox's 24 riveting. Hugh Laurie is a deserving underdog as Dr. Gregory House on Fox's House and won the award from the Television Critics Association. We're betting on James Spader, who delivers as the deliciously devious Alan Shore on ABC's Boston Legal. But we're hoping for Ian McShane, as the black-hearted tyrant on HBO's Deadwood.
ODDS: Spader, 2-1; McShane, 3-1; Sutherland, 4-1; Laurie, 7-1; Azaria, 10-1
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Patricia Heaton of CBS' Raymond won in 2000 and 2001 and will win again only if Emmy voters go off on a nostalgia jag. Jane Kaczmarek of Fox's Malcolm in the Middle has been nominated five times without a win, and the only way she gets it is if the Desperate Housewives split their vote. Speaking of which: Teri Hatcher's lonely Susan and Felicity Huffman's stressed-out Lynette seem like relatively normal folks acting abnormally, and they're getting the most press. But Marcia Cross as the uptight Bree—”Martha Stewart on steroids”—is way out there in American Beauty-land. She's so over-the-top we want her to land there. We like Cross in this race.
ODDS: Hatcher, 3-2; Huffman, 2-1; Kaczmarek, 3-1; Cross, 5-1; Heaton, 7-1
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Did Emmy voters really think that Glenn Close's season-long gig on FX's The Shield was worthy of nomination and series star Michael Chiklis wasn't? Well, the Emmys can be that way. ABC's Alias didn't draw as many raves this year, which paradoxically means it might be time for tardy Emmy trend spotters to finally notice Jennifer Garner. Both Mariska Hargitay for Law & Order: Special Victims Unit and Patricia Arquette for Medium star in depressing shows, but Hargitay has star power. We'd like to see the Emmy go to … Frances Conroy, nominated twice before as the lovingly flawed matriarch on HBO's Six Feet Under. But probably this is Close in a cakewalk. Emmys go to big movie stars who show up on TV.
ODDS: Close, 2-1; Hargitay, 3-1; Arquette, 4-1; Conroy, 5-1; Garner, 7-1
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