Midterm Mania

Network coverage breaks '94 record By Andrew Tyndall

Pundits have predicted that the 2006 midterm elections will be a replay of the 1994 midterms, when voter disaffection with the ruling party catapulted the opposition into power. But the Big Three broadcast networks' coverage of this campaign has already broken the record set for midterm coverage 12 years ago.

The 1994 campaign set a record with twice the coverage of a normal, incumbent-friendly midterm election, logging a three-network total of 216 minutes in the first 10 months of that year. In the same period leading up to Election Day 2006, the current campaign has clocked 240 min. of coverage. (Contrast those with the other midterm totals in the Tyndall Report database: 1990: 157 min.; 1998: 107 min.; 2002: 140 min.)

Moreover, the networks dove into the 2006 race—and its potential magnitude—earlier in the eight months leading up to Labor Day than they did in 1994: 87 minutes this year vs. 32 then. This is all the more remarkable considering that this year's campaign lacks the number of big-name candidates in tight races that dominated the '94 campaign. This year, the campaign coverage is decidedly focused on issues.

These record-setting numbers do not even include coverage of the season's headline-grabbing Capitol Hill scandal. Although the sex-messaging story involving then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) was broken by ABC investigative reporter Brian Ross, CBS Evening News has accorded it marginally more coverage (34 min. vs. 30 at ABC and 28 at NBC).

In 1994, celebrity incumbents Gov. Mario Cuomo in New York, Sen. Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts and Gov. Ann Richards in Texas were all in tough races. Along with Iran-Contra star Oliver North, who was running for U.S. Senate in Virginia, they attracted most of the networks' attention.

In 2006, there is a dearth of such political star power. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) are in lopsided contests of little news value. The only nationally known politicians in contested races are Sen. George Allen in Virginia and Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut.

So this September and October, the relatively faceless, non–personality-driven House races have grabbed 54% of the midterm coverage (71 minutes out of 132) compared with only 49% (75 minutes out of 153) in the fall of 1994. ABC World News has spent much more time this fall on the contest for control over the House of Representatives than on Senate races (23 minutes vs. 9).

Of the three networks, only NBC Nightly News, which is running a “Battle for the Senate” feature series, spent more time on Senate races than the House contest (35 minutes vs. 13). The series dovetails with anchor Tim Russert's Meet the Press strategy of scheduling debates between Senate candidates in swing states rather than party spokespeople.

At ABC, This Week anchor George Stephanopoulos has led the political coverage, appearing on World News on 22 out of the 43 weekdays in September and October. In a throwback to his role in the Clinton War Room, he deciphers issues poll results for viewers. “Look at the numbers: Terrorism is No. 5 right now, behind Iraq, the economy, health care, gas prices,” he said just after Labor Day. “What the president is trying to do right now is scare people enough to care about the war or terror but not so much that … they think we are not safe. And that is a very difficult line for the president to walk.”

Whatever happens on Election Day, partisans on both sides are lining up their talking points to spin any potential losses, and media coverage has already been floated as a culprit.

As NBC's Russert notes, many Republicans frame the race along these lines: “If this is a referendum on Iraq, we lose. If we can make it on the economy and security, we win.”

Meanwhile, former Democratic leader Richard Gephardt told a C-SPAN audience last week that media coverage has given Republicans an edge: “For the last six months, the Republicans have been on alert that they might lose this election. That was not the case for us, I can assure you.”

Given the early coverage this year and the focus on issues over celebrity, Gephardt has a point. But the Republican excuse-in-waiting doesn't hold up. In September and October, helped by saturation coverage of President Bush's commemorations of the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the war on terrorism received more airtime than Iraq (326 minutes vs. 288), and economic coverage received more time than the Foley scandal (120 minutes vs. 92).

If Republicans lose control of Congress on Tuesday, it will be despite their success at framing the mainstream news agenda rather than a result of their inability to do so.